July 22, 2025

In the shadows of America's vibrant democracy lies a whisper of division so profound it reaches back to the darkest days of the Civil War. In recent years, conversations around the possibility of secession have resurfaced, prompting some to wonder if these discussions are merely theoretical or a prelude to more drastic actions.
Historically, secession is tied to moments of extreme national strife and division. The Civil War, which followed the secession of several southern states, remains the deadliest conflict on American soil. Today, while the likelihood of states successfully seceding seems remote, the mere resurgence of this topic highlights deeper issues within the national dialogue.
In California, the "Calexit" movement is once again gaining traction, proposing a ballot initiative asking Californians if they wish to break away from the Union. This initiative, though perhaps unlikely to succeed, underscores the significant political and cultural divides within the U.S.
Experts like Mark Graber from the University of Maryland and Sandy Levinson from the University of Texas argue that modern secession faces significant obstacles. The current political landscape does not support the clear geographical divides that characterized past secessions, such as that of Vermont in the 1770s or Norway in 1905. Instead, America today is a patchwork of political beliefs, with conservative rural areas and liberal cities intermingled within states.
Professor Levinson points out that while secession at the state level is unlikely, the concept shouldn't be dismissed entirely. It serves as a crucial academic discussion point, challenging students and scholars to explore the fundamental nature of union and division within a democracy.
Adding a contrasting view, Professor Jorge Roig from Touro Law Center suggests that the ideological and political foundations of the American Republic have been shaken by recent Supreme Court decisions, which he argues diminish the rule of law and push the presidency towards a form of unchecked authority reminiscent of monarchy.
Despite these profound challenges, the broader consensus among scholars is that secession remains a distant possibility, more a subject for theoretical debate than practical consideration. However, the fact that it is discussed at all is telling of the persistent, deep-seated divisions within the country.
The conversation around secession also touches upon larger global issues, such as climate change and international cooperation. Mark Graber emphasizes that solving such problems requires broader, not narrower, forms of governance.
In conclusion, while the United States may not be on the brink of secession, the resurgence of such discussions signals significant discontent and polarization. It invites a reexamination of the political structure and the bonds that hold the nation together. As divisive as the topic may be, it remains a crucial part of understanding and addressing the underlying fractures in American society.