In a significant political maneuver, the National Assembly of Republika Srpska, a Serb-majority entity within Bosnia and Herzegovina, has called for a referendum aimed at overturning a federal court ruling that bans former President Milorad Dodik from office. This decision, made during a fervent late-night session last Friday, represents a stark challenge to the authority of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s federal institutions and the Office of the High Representative.

The assembly’s move follows the August 1 ruling by the Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina, which sentenced Dodik to one year in prison and imposed a six-year ban on his holding presidential office for non-compliance with the High Representative's directives. Reacting to what it perceives as an infringement on its autonomy, the Republika Srpska legislature not only rejected this decision but also the jurisdiction of the High Representative Christian Schmidt and the Central Election Commission (CEC), which had moved to enforce the court's ruling.

Lawmakers in Republika Srpska have established a Referendum Commission and scheduled the vote for October 25, 2025. Citizens will be asked whether they support the federal court’s decision, the actions of Christian Schmidt, and the CEC’s mandate termination concerning Dodik. This step underscores ongoing tensions and divisions within the nation, which were notably exacerbated when Dodik threatened secession in December 2023 and opposed a UN resolution recognizing the Srebrenica massacre as genocide in May 2024.

These developments raise concerns about the stability of Bosnia and Herzegovina's 1995 Dayton Peace Agreement framework, which ended the Bosnian War by creating a federal structure with significant autonomy for its two main entities. This structure is designed to share power between the Bosniak-Croat Federation and Republika Srpska through a system of ethnic quotas and a tripartite Presidency.

The international community, particularly the UN, has historically opposed any attempts at secession or territorial changes by force within Bosnia and Herzegovina, emphasizing the country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity as established by the 1992 UN Security Council resolution 787 and reinforced by the Dayton Accords.

As the referendum date approaches, the eyes of the world, as well as the citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina, will be watching closely, understanding that the outcome could significantly influence the future political landscape and stability of the region.