Amnesty International issued a stern warning on Monday against the hasty repatriation of Rohingya refugees from Bangladesh back to Myanmar, labeling the move as "dangerously premature." The human rights organization highlighted that the current conditions in northern Rakhine State are far from conducive for a safe return, predicting catastrophic outcomes if the repatriation proceeds under the status quo.

Rohingya, a predominantly Muslim ethnic group from Myanmar, have historically faced severe persecution and were driven in large numbers to Bangladesh following a military campaign in 2016-2017, which the United Nations categorized as a "textbook example of ethnic cleansing." Currently, over a million Rohingya reside in refugee camps in Bangladesh, with their situation garnering international concern.

The dire warnings from Amnesty come just as a UN General Assembly high-level conference is about to convene, focusing on the plight of the Rohingya and other minority groups in Myanmar. The conference aims to discuss and potentially plan the repatriation of the displaced Rohingya population.

Amnesty International researcher Joe Freeman articulated the grim realities in Rakhine State. He noted that the Arakan Army has largely taken over as the new oppressor in the region, replacing the Myanmar military, which previously targeted the Rohingya. "The military are using Rohingya civilians as cannon fodder in their conflicts with the Arakan Army, and we are also seeing new attacks by Rohingya armed groups," Freeman explained. He also highlighted the worsening humanitarian crisis, exacerbated by a significant reduction in US aid, leading to scarce supplies and skyrocketing prices.

The Arakan Army, controlling large parts of northern Rakhine since 2024, has rebuffed accusations of forced labor and discriminatory practices, asserting that such measures are necessary for community security amid ongoing conflict. They claim these measures apply equally to Rakhine communities and that only convicted criminals may be assigned work tasks. Despite these assertions, Amnesty insists that the conditions under Arakan Army control are dire, and both the Army and the Myanmar military have perpetrated abuses violating international humanitarian law.

Additionally, other human rights organizations like Human Rights Watch (HRW) have condemned the forced expulsion of Rohingya refugees to Bangladesh and Myanmar without adequate rights protections, and have also accused the Arakan Army of committing human rights abuses against the Rohingya.

As the international community gears up for the UN conference, the focus remains sharply on ensuring that any discussions or plans for repatriation are preceded by significant improvements in the conditions and safety measures in Myanmar’s Rakhine State, to avoid further exacerbating an already desperate humanitarian and human rights situation.