February 18, 2026


Could Artificial Intelligence Threaten the Future of Social Security?

As artificial intelligence (AI) weaves itself deeper into the fabric of daily business, its potential to replace human work has sparked a crucial debate about the future of social security systems. AI's growing ability to perform tasks ranging from complex research to artistic creation is undeniably enhancing efficiency and cutting costs for many businesses. However, this comes with a significant downside—job displacement and the consequent reduction in workforce contributions to social security and Medicare.

The concern reaches beyond theoretical speculation. In recent years, sectors traditionally dominated by white-collar professionals have felt the encroaching presence of AI. Some lawyers, for example, have faced repercussions for utilizing AI in ways that skirt ethical boundaries. Moreover, the entertainment industry witnessed a significant strike from Hollywood writers and actors in 2023, aimed at curbing the use of AI in scriptwriting and digital replication of performers.

The financial mechanics of social security and Medicare are straightforward yet alarming in this context. Both systems are funded by payroll taxes from employees and self-employment taxes from business owners. Currently, employees contribute 7.65% of their income while self-employed individuals contribute 15.3% up to a certain income cap, which is $184,500 for 2026. Income beyond this threshold is not subject to social security taxes, although it still incurs Medicare taxes.

The projected insolvency of the social security trust fund by 2032 underscores the urgency of the situation. Should AI-driven unemployment exacerbate, the shortfall in tax contributions could hasten this insolvency, forcing the government to make difficult decisions such as cutting benefits, raising the eligibility age, or increasing taxes.

Yet, history teaches that technological disruption often leads to economic adaptation rather than catastrophe. The replacement of assembly-line workers by automated systems throughout the 20th century didn't lead to the economic decline; instead, it shifted the nature of job skills required in the workforce. Similarly, the disruption caused by e-commerce to traditional brick-and-mortar stores led to the burgeoning of new business models and job opportunities.

Several solutions have been proposed to counter the potential negative impacts of AI on employment and social security. One popular proposition is the imposition of additional taxes on companies utilizing AI, though this could be unpopular among small business owners and might lead to higher consumer prices. Another debated solution is the introduction of a universal basic income (UBI), which would guarantee a basic livelihood to all citizens, regardless of employment status, potentially cushioning the blow from AI-induced job losses.

Adjusting the funding model for social security appears to be the most straightforward solution, whether through new taxes or increased rates. Alternatively, awaiting further developments might not be as passive a strategy as it seems. The proliferation of AI might create new job categories, particularly in maintaining and improving AI systems, and in fields requiring ethical and philosophical oversight.

In conclusion, while AI presents challenges to the traditional structures of employment and social security, proactive adaptation and innovative policy-making could turn these challenges into opportunities, ensuring that the benefits of AI advancements are felt across the entire societal spectrum. The key lies in balancing technological embrace with robust protection for those navigating the transition.